As a result, wheat production is estimated at 37 million tonnes, 34% above the 10-year average. Barley production is forecast to be at a record 15.5 million tonnes, 32% above the 10-year average.
If realized, the wheat crop would be the second-largest on record, 8.5% above the previous year. The upward revision is primarily yield-driven, with the national average yield forecast to be the second highest on record, the FAS said.
Exports are forecast at 27 million tonnes, up 3.3 million tonnes from the previous year and up 7.3 million tonnes from the 10-year average.
Australia has a broad and diversified wheat export portfolio, shipping to more than 50 destinations, the FAS said. In recent years the top destinations have been Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea. China has been a major importer at times, however its purchases have declined since 2022-23 and only accounted for 4.5% of Australian exports in 2024-25.
The primary driver in the barley production boom is a very strong yield outcome, with the national average yield forecast to be the second highest on record, the FAS said.
The barley yield forecast for 2025-26 is estimated to be 12.5% higher than the previous year and 26% above the 10-year average.
Barley exports are forecast at 8.6 million tonnes, the second highest on record.
Australia typically exports barley to more than 20 countries each year.
“However, since normal trading relations with China resumed, China has accounted for approximately three-quarters of Australia’s total barley exports over the past two years,” the FAS said. “Strong Chinese demand has displaced several traditional markets, particularly Japan, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, which previously imported significant volumes of Australian barley.”
